Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Greed & Fear - Part 1

Very potent motivators. No, no – I’m sure as hell not going to launch into an entire textbook’s worth of psychological behavior . Me no expert. The only part I could identify with in terms of this entire body of study is psycho ;) In two days flat I’ve run through the entire depressing gamut of greed and fear two times over. Wanna sit down hear?

Cycle One


The first is pretty darn straight forward. We all know the Singaporean Stock market has gone a lil’stark, raving, mad the couple weeks. Well, I’m generally for safe investing – I’m not one of those risk-embracing-come-to-mama boys in Uni that contra-trades an entire years tuition income on a single transaction. Nor am I one of those that would buy a fast, low car with my winnings- um I mean returns.

So far so good. My safe type of investing has generated about a 30% return on average. Being around fast macho talking boys, that spout charting techniques by the milli-second does admittedly make you feel like - #1, a geriatric-type – too safe, too dull a Singaporean as they come. #2 Bloody Envious, #3 Impatient and Restless. I have to waiting over 3 months to actually see any kind of significant returns. So get this, I decide to trade on impulse. Don’t do my homework and decide to buy a stock, based on the flimsy ‘tip’ if you might want to call it - a day after the STI hits an all time record high of about 3150 points.

Well, I just wanted a quick buck. It would be thoroughly awesome to indulge in a new pair of skinny jeans or a pretty dress – or simply contribute to my tour-the-world fund. Plus, I figured that I could probably beat the granny investors, till I realized to my utmost chagrin that I was one myself. You know the kind the institutional investors whack to a juicy red-purple pulp.

Yeah – so I got whacked. It nose dived 5 cents down these two days. I could pull a pseudo Warren Buffet and go, “Oh no, this company is severely undervalued” and hold it till it rise again (if it EVER does rise) and claim tremendous skill and foresight in stock picking then. So I sold the piece-of-sh*t-lots of shares off, upon reading 2 days after I bought it that last year that people in this firm were hauled up for accounting irregularities. Also found out, that this was on of the market anomalies. The unexplained huge rise in stock price year wasn’t fueled by robust fundamentals. So that leaves irrational exuberance by the speculators and those that think they are.

So in great, trembling fear. I sold Auston off today.

In all repentance, I confess I’m nothing but a low level gambler.

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